Türkiye’s Post-Assad Strategy: An Analysis of its Evolving Geopolitical Posture in Syria
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Abstract
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in December 2024 is widely viewed as a crucial turning point in the Syrian conflict. The fall opened a new period of political alignments and regional contestation. In this context, Türkiye has been seen as one of the most crucial external players shaping Syria. This article examines Türkiye's strategy in post-Assad Syria by analysing the evolution of its geopolitical posture. The article argues that Türkiye has transitioned towards a dual strategy that combines security engagement with political, economic, and institutional mechanisms oriented towards shaping and defining Syria’s postconflict order. Drawing on regional power theory, the article analyses three key dimensions of Türkiye’s evolving posture: security and territorial influence, political and institutional engagement, and economic and reconstruction leverage. The article contends that Türkiye’s approach reflects a pragmatic recalibration rather than a withdrawal, positioning Ankara as the most important actor in determining Syria’s governance and regional alignment in the near future. By moving beyond an intervention-centric analysis, this study contributes to the emerging literature on post-Assad Syria. It offers insights into the changing nature of the influence of the regional powers in the Middle East.
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